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Research Article

BEST PAPER 2021

Mathematical aspects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Analysis and Control


Submission Deadline: 31 August 2020 (closed)

Abstract

This article has no abstract.

Keywords

Infectious diseases, Analysis, Control, computational mathematics related to the pandemic, COVID-19.
  • Research Article

    BEST PAPER 2021

    Analysis and Forecasting COVID-19 Outbreak in Pakistan Using Decomposition and Ensemble Model

    Xiaoli Qiang1, Muhammad Aamir2,*, Muhammad Naeem2, Shaukat Ali3, Adnan Aslam4, Zehui Shao1 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.68, No.1, pp. 841-856, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.012540
    Abstract COVID-19 has caused severe health complications and produced a substantial adverse economic impact around the world. Forecasting the trend of COVID-19 infections could help in executing policies to effectively reduce the number of new cases. In this study, we apply the decomposition and ensemble model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries in Pakistan for the upcoming month until the end of July. For the decomposition of data, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) technique is applied. EEMD decomposes the data into small components, called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). For individual IMFs modelling, we use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Numerical Analysis of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCov) Pandemic Model with Advection

    Shumaila Azam1, Nauman Ahmed1,6, Ali Raza2, Muhammad Sajid Iqbal1, Muhammad Rafiq3, Ilyas Khan4,*, Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar5, Muhammad Ozair Ahmad1, Zafar Iqbal1,6 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.67, No.3, pp. 2933-2953, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.012396
    Abstract Recently, the world is facing the terror of the novel corona-virus, termed as COVID-19. Various health institutes and researchers are continuously striving to control this pandemic. In this article, the SEIAR (susceptible, exposed, infected, symptomatically infected, asymptomatically infected and recovered) infection model of COVID-19 with a constant rate of advection is studied for the disease propagation. A simple model of the disease is extended to an advection model by accommodating the advection process and some appropriate parameters in the system. The continuous model is transposed into a discrete numerical model by discretizing the domains, finitely. To analyze the disease dynamics,… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Epidemiological Analysis of the Coronavirus Disease Outbreak with Random Effects

    Muhammad Farman1, Aqeel Ahmad1, Ali Akgül2,*, Muhammad Umer Saleem3, Muhammad Naeem4, Dumitru Baleanu5,6,7 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.67, No.3, pp. 3215-3227, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.014006
    Abstract Today, coronavirus appears as a serious challenge to the whole world. Epidemiological data of coronavirus is collected through media and web sources for the purpose of analysis. New data on COVID-19 are available daily, yet information about the biological aspects of SARS-CoV-2 and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 remains limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all its parameters’ values. This research provides the scientific and public health communities better resources, knowledge, and tools to improve their ability to control the infectious diseases. Using the publicly available data on the ongoing pandemic, the present study investigates the incubation period and other time… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Modeling the COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics in Iran and China

    Jin Zhao1, Zubair Ahmad2,*, Zahra Almaspoor2 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.67, No.2, pp. 2111-2122, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.014259
    Abstract The epidemic outbreak COVID-19 was first detected in the Wuhan city of China and then spread worldwide. It is of great interest to the researchers for its high rate of infection spread and its significant number of fatalities. A detailed scientific analysis of this phenomenon is yet to come. However, it is of interest of governments and other responsible institutions to have the right facts and figures to take every possible necessary action such as an arrangement of the appropriate quarantine activities, estimation of the required number of places in hospitals, assessment of the level of personal protection, and calculating… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Deep Learning and Holt-Trend Algorithms for Predicting Covid-19 Pandemic

    Theyazn H. H. Aldhyani1,*, Melfi Alrasheed2, Mosleh Hmoud Al-Adaileh3, Ahmed Abdullah Alqarni4, Mohammed Y. Alzahrani4, Ahmed H. Alahmadi5 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.67, No.2, pp. 2141-2160, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.014498
    Abstract The Covid-19 epidemic poses a serious public health threat to the world, where people with little or no pre-existing human immunity can be more vulnerable to its effects. Thus, developing surveillance systems for predicting the Covid-19 pandemic at an early stage could save millions of lives. In this study, a deep learning algorithm and a Holt-trend model are proposed to predict the coronavirus. The Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Holt-trend algorithms were applied to predict confirmed numbers and death cases. The real time data used has been collected from the World Health Organization (WHO). In the proposed research, we have… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics in Two Asian Countries

    Jin Zhao1, Zubair Ahmad2,*, Zahra Almaspoor2, M. El-Morshedy3,4, Ahmed Z. Afify5 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.67, No.1, pp. 965-977, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.014553
    Abstract The current epidemic outbreak COVID-19 first took place in the Wuhan city of China and then spread worldwide. This deadly disease affected millions of people and compelled the governments and other concerned institutions to take serious actions. Around 0.28 million people have died from the COVID-19 outbreak as of May 11, 2020, 05:41 GMT, and the number is still increasing exponentially. The results of any scientific investigation of this phenomenon are still to come. However, now it is urgently needed to evaluate and compare the disease dynamics to improve the quarantine activities and the level of individual protection, to at… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Computation Analysis of Brand Experience Dimensions: Indian Online Food Delivery Platforms

    Sufyan Habib1, Nawaf N. Hamadneh2,*, S. Al wadi3, Ra’ed Masa’deh4 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.67, No.1, pp. 445-462, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.014047
    Abstract Online Food Delivery Platforms (OFDPs) has witnessed phenomenal growth in the past few years, especially this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This Pandemic has forced many governments across the world to give momentum to OFD services and make their presence among the customers. The Presence of several multinational and national companies in this sector has enhanced the competition and companies are trying to adapt various marketing strategies and exploring the brand experience (BEX) dimension that helps in enhancing the brand equity (BE) of OFDPs. BEXs are critical for building brand loyalty (BL) and making companies profitable. Customers can experience… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Dynamical Behaviors of Nonlinear Coronavirus (COVID-19) Model with Numerical Studies

    Khaled A. Gepreel1,2, Mohamed S. Mohamed1,3, Hammad Alotaibi1, Amr M. S. Mahdy1,2,* CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.67, No.1, pp. 675-686, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.012200
    Abstract The development of mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is a key research area in various fields including ecology and epidemiology. One aim of these models is to understand the dynamics of behavior in infectious diseases. For the new strain of coronavirus (COVID-19), there is no vaccine to protect people and to prevent its spread so far. Instead, control strategies associated with health care, such as social distancing, quarantine, travel restrictions, can be adopted to control the pandemic of COVID-19. This article sheds light on the dynamical behaviors of nonlinear COVID-19 models based on two methods: the homotopy perturbation method (HPM)… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Modelling and Simulation of COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction Using Supervised Machine Learning

    Rachid Zagrouba1, Muhammad Adnan Khan2,*, Atta-ur-Rahman1, Muhammad Aamer Saleem3, Muhammad Faheem Mushtaq4, Abdur Rehman5, Muhammad Farhan Khan6 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.3, pp. 2397-2407, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.014042
    Abstract Novel Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) is a newer type of coronavirus that has not been formally detected in humans. It is established that this disease often affects people of different age groups, particularly those with body disorders, blood pressure, diabetes, heart problems, or weakened immune systems. The epidemic of this infection has recently had a huge impact on people around the globe with rising mortality rates. Rising levels of mortality are attributed to their transmitting behavior through physical contact between humans. It is extremely necessary to monitor the transmission of the infection and also to anticipate the early stages of the disease… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning for Effective Public Health Management

    Fahad Ahmad1,*, Saleh N. Almuayqil2, Mamoona Humayun2, Shahid Naseem3, Wasim Ahmad Khan4, Kashaf Junaid5 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.3, pp. 2265-2282, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.013067
    Abstract COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected nearly every country in the world. At present, sustainable development in the area of public health is considered vital to securing a promising and prosperous future for humans. However, widespread diseases, such as COVID-19, create numerous challenges to this goal, and some of those challenges are not yet defined. In this study, a Shallow Single-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (SSLPNN) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model were used for the classification and prediction of confirmed COVID-19 cases in five geographically distributed regions of Asia with diverse settings and environmental conditions: namely, China, South Korea,… More >

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  • Research Article

    BEST PAPER 2021

    Optimal Control Model for the Transmission of Novel COVID-19

    Isa Abdullahi Baba1,*, Bashir Ahmad Nasidi1, Dumitru Baleanu2,3,4 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.3, pp. 3089-3106, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2021.012301
    Abstract As the corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic ravages socio-economic activities in addition to devastating infectious and fatal consequences, optimal control strategy is an effective measure that neutralizes the scourge to its lowest ebb. In this paper, we present a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19, and then we added an optimal control function to the model in order to effectively control the outbreak. We incorporate three main control efforts (isolation, quarantine and hospitalization) into the model aimed at controlling the spread of the pandemic. These efforts are further subdivided into five functions; u1(t) (isolation of the susceptible communities), u2(t) (contact… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    An Effective Numerical Method for the Solution of a Stochastic Coronavirus (2019-nCovid) Pandemic Model

    Wasfi Shatanawi1,2,3, Ali Raza4,5,*, Muhammad Shoaib Arif4, Kamaledin Abodayeh1, Muhammad Rafiq6, Mairaj Bibi7 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.2, pp. 1121-1137, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2020.012070
    Abstract Nonlinear stochastic modeling plays a significant role in disciplines such as psychology, finance, physical sciences, engineering, econometrics, and biological sciences. Dynamical consistency, positivity, and boundedness are fundamental properties of stochastic modeling. A stochastic coronavirus model is studied with techniques of transition probabilities and parametric perturbation. Well-known explicit methods such as Euler Maruyama, stochastic Euler, and stochastic Runge–Kutta are investigated for the stochastic model. Regrettably, the above essential properties are not restored by existing methods. Hence, there is a need to construct essential properties preserving the computational method. The non-standard approach of finite difference is examined to maintain the above basic… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Analysis and Dynamics of Fractional Order Mathematical Model of COVID-19 in Nigeria Using Atangana-Baleanu Operator

    Olumuyiwa J. Peter1, Amjad S. Shaikh2,*, Mohammed O. Ibrahim1, Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar3, Dumitru Baleanu4,5,6, Ilyas Khan7, Adesoye I. Abioye1 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.2, pp. 1823-1848, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2020.012314
    Abstract We propose a mathematical model of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to investigate the transmission and control mechanism of the disease in the community of Nigeria. Using stability theory of differential equations, the qualitative behavior of model is studied. The pandemic indicator represented by basic reproductive number R0 is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Local as well as global asymptotic stability conditions for the disease-free and pandemic equilibrium are obtained which determines the conditions to stabilize the exponential spread of the disease. Further, we examined this model by using Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative operator and existence criteria… More >

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  • Research Article

    BEST PAPER 2021

    Is Social Distancing, and Quarantine Effective in Restricting COVID-19 Outbreak? Statistical Evidences from Wuhan, China

    Salman A. Cheema1, Tanveer Kifayat2, Abdu R. Rahman2, Umair Khan3, A. Zaib4, Ilyas Khan5,*, Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar6 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.2, pp. 1977-1985, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2020.012096
    Abstract The flow of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected almost every aspect of human life around the globe. Being the emerging ground and early sufferer of the virus, Wuhan city-data remains a case of multifold significance. Further, it is of notable importance to explore the impact of unique and unprecedented public health response of Chinese authorities—the extreme lockdown of the city. In this research, we investigate the statistical nature of the viral transmission concerning social distancing, extreme quarantine, and robust lockdown interventions. We observed highly convincing and statistically significant evidences in favor of quarantine and social distancing approaches. These findings might… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Potential Inhibitory Effect of Vitamins Against COVID-19

    Kashaf Junaid1,*, Sumera Qasim2, Humaira Yasmeen3, Hasan Ejaz1, Abdullah Alsrhani1, Muhammad Ikram Ullah1, Fahad Ahmad4, Abdul Rehman5 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.1, pp. 707-714, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2020.012976
    Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a current pandemic that has affected more than 195 countries worldwide. In this severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, when treatment strategies are not yet clear and vaccines are not available, vitamins are an excellent choice to protect against this viral infection. The rationale behind this study was to examine the inhibitory effect of vitamins B, C, and D against the main protease of SARSCoV-2 and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which have critical rolesin the immune system. Molecular docking, performed by using MOE-Dock of the Chemical Computing Group, was used to understand the… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Qualitative Analysis of a Fractional Pandemic Spread Model of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

    Ali Yousef1,*, Fatma Bozkurt1,2, Thabet Abdeljawad3,4,5 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.66, No.1, pp. 843-869, 2021, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2020.012060
    Abstract In this study, we classify the genera of COVID-19 and provide brief information about the root of the spread and the transmission from animal (natural host) to humans. We establish a model of fractional-order differential equations to discuss the spread of the infection from the natural host to the intermediate one, and from the intermediate one to the human host. At the same time, we focus on the potential spillover of bat-borne coronaviruses. We consider the local stability of the co-existing critical point of the model by using the Routh–Hurwitz Criteria. Moreover, we analyze the existence and uniqueness of the… More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Analysis and Dynamics of Illicit Drug Use Described by Fractional Derivative with Mittag-Leffler Kernel

    Berat Karaagac1, 2, Kolade Matthew Owolabi1, 3, *, Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar4 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.65, No.3, pp. 1905-1924, 2020, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2020.011623
    Abstract Illicit drug use is a significant problem that causes great material and moral losses and threatens the future of the society. For this reason, illicit drug use and related crimes are the most significant criminal cases examined by scientists. This paper aims at modeling the illegal drug use using the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative with Mittag-Leffler kernel. Also, in this work, the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the fractional-order Illicit drug use model are discussed via Picard-Lindelöf theorem which provides successive approximations using a convergent sequence. Then the stability analysis for both disease-free and endemic equilibrium states is conducted. A… More >

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  • Research Article

    BEST PAPER 2021

    Awareness as the Most Effective Measure to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria

    Isa Abdullahi Baba1, *, Dumitru Baleanu2, 3 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.65, No.3, pp. 1945-1957, 2020, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2020.011508
    Abstract A mathematical model consisting of a system of four nonlinear ordinary differential equations is constructed. Our aim is to study the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria and to show the effectiveness of awareness and the need for relevant authorities to engage themselves more in enlightening people on the significance of the available control measures in mitigating the spread of the disease. Two equilibrium solutions; Disease free equilibrium and Endemic equilibrium solutions were calculated and their global stability analysis was carried out. Basic reproduction ratio ( More >

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    BEST PAPER 2021

    Analysis of Twitter Data Using Evolutionary Clustering during the COVID-19 Pandemic

    Ibrahim Arpaci1, Shadi Alshehabi2, Mostafa Al-Emran3, *, Mahmoud Khasawneh4, Ibrahim Mahariq4, Thabet Abdeljawad5, 6, 7, Aboul Ella Hassanien8, 9 CMC-Computers, Materials & Continua, Vol.65, No.1, pp. 193-204, 2020, DOI:10.32604/cmc.2020.011489
    Abstract People started posting textual tweets on Twitter as soon as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) emerged. Analyzing these tweets can assist institutions in better decision-making and prioritizing their tasks. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze 43 million tweets collected between March 22 and March 30, 2020 and describe the trend of public attention given to the topics related to the COVID-19 epidemic using evolutionary clustering analysis. The results indicated that unigram terms were trended more frequently than bigram and trigram terms. A large number of tweets about the COVID-19 were disseminated and received widespread public attention during the epidemic. The high-frequency… More >

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